Premier League Matches, Odds & Picks
Looking for today's English Premier League betting lines, picks and predictions? Get all the EPL goal lines, money lines and over/unders and enjoy predictions and picks for selected matches.
How to read Premier League odds
When first loading up a Premier League odds page, bettors will usually be met by the moneyline and goals total. The spread is less common than in American sports, partly because the games are lower scoring.
A moneyline bet is simply a wager on a team to win (or backing the match to end in a draw). The goal totals is exactly what it sounds like: it’s a bet on under or over a set number of goals. If the ‘line’ is 2.5 goals, for instance, gamblers will be able to get odds of roughly evens on either over or under 2.5 total goals.
Both teams to score is a popular Premier League betting market. This, again, is pretty straight forward. Often referred to as ‘BTTS’, this is a simple yes/no bet on whether both teams score in the match or half.
WagerLab offers spread betting for some Premier League matches. This will rarely go higher than plus or minus 1.5 goals. It’s a form of handicapping the favored team to provide a roughly even money bet.
For instance, if a bettor backs Manchester City on the -1.5 handicap, then City need to win by two goals for the bet to win. If West Ham are +1.5 underdogs, the bet ‘wins’ even if the Hammers lose by a goal.
Premier League odds movement
Premier League odds are unlikely to shift as drastically as NBA or NFL odds. The loss of a quarterback or an All-Star can change NFL or NBA odds significantly, but Premier League pre-match odds are not as sensitive to injury news for the most part.
Odds movement in the Premier League is generally more subtle. Like with any sports betting market, the odds can alter with significant money one way or the other.
A lot of bettors will hold off on Premier League bets because of how late team news comes out. Managers will often be unclear – or even intentionally play mind games – in the media about their team selection. This makes it hard for bettors to evaluate the markets.
The absence of a key player might not shift the moneyline notably, but it can have an impact on other markets like both teams to score and to win to nil. Virgil van Dijk being ruled out, for example, changes how secure Liverpool are defensively and this will quickly be reflected in the odds.
Managerial changes and trends associated with managers will have a knock-on impact to Premier League odds, too.
Premier League futures betting
Bookmakers offer a wide array of Premier League futures bets. Win total markets are not a staple like they are with NBA, MLB or NFL. Drawn matches might make win total bets uncommon, but bettors have a catalogue of futures markets to get stuck into.
Obviously, bettors can wager on any of the 20 teams to win the Premier League. There’s only three or four legitimate title contenders at the start of the season, such is the relative predictability of league football compared to playoffs in American sports.
Beyond that, bookies offer markets on Champions League qualification, top six and top 10 finishes and relegation.
Many bookmakers will have other markets that are open throughout the season. These will include ‘best team in London’, ‘best promoted side’ and ‘winner without X’. These markets will vary between bookmakers. A lot of bookies will run special markets before the campaign and sometimes introduce others during the season.
Premier League betting strategy
Honing a successful Premier League betting strategy relies on an open mind. There will not be obvious value for many matches, particularly when there’s a heavy favorite. Bettors should familiarize themselves with all markets.
As with any sports betting, it’s vital to get comfortable with useful statistics and develop a foundation of go-to websites. There are a lot of websites which will show a team’s record with betting statistics. Platforms like 11v11 are brilliant to quickly look through previous meetings between two teams, too.
Teams news, as ever, is important, but don’t get too distracted by the availability of one player.
There’s a lot to take on board when weighing up Premier League bets – recent form, underlying statistics and managerial tendencies are important indicators to consider before getting too deep into whether player X will be available.