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WagerLab / Predictions / NFL Picks, Predictions and Lines

NFL Picks, Predictions and Lines

Looking for this week’s NFL betting lines, picks and predictions? Get this week’s NFL point spreads, money lines and over/unders and enjoy predictions and picks for selected games.

NFL Picks and Predictions

Well past the halfway mark of the 2021 campaign, things are heating up as franchises jockey for playoff positioning. Our NFL Week 13 tips feature division duels and conference contests alike.

Let’s dive into the best free NFL picks for Week 13, starting in Cincinnati.

Chargers @ Bengals

Lurking at 6-5, the Los Angeles Chargers have had a difficult middle section of the season. A loss to the Broncos was as disappointing as it was surprising, and they are nearing must-win territory if they want to keep the pressure on the Chiefs down the stretch.

In clear contrast, the Bengals are flying high. Joe Burrow blew out the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12 to keep Cincy in touch with the Ravens and make it back-to-back wins. Their offense is as advertised, and can put real pressure on this Chargers defense.

With the fifth-worst points per game conceded, LA is 2.5-point underdogs for this trip to Ohio. That’s about where we’d expect them to be given the recent performances of both clubs.

This is a box-office clash between two of the league’s most exciting young quarterbacks. It’s going to be all about the offense.

Pick: Over 50.5 points

Ravens @ Steelers

Seeing off the Browns in a defense-heavy game on Sunday night, the Baltimore Ravens have taken charge of the AFC North. With the defense dropping off, Pittsburgh tied with Detroit before leaking points in losses to the Chargers and Bengals.

Home advantage is playing an alarmingly big role here. Pittsburgh is just three-point dogs, which seems like a remarkably small spread given the two-way prowess of the Ravens.

Perhaps it’s a nod to a stuttering Baltimore offense. They have scored just 36 points across their last three games, but the Steelers’ defensive woes of late suggest they can put up a big number in Week 13.

We’re taking the road team to cover here. It could be an easy W.

Pick: Ravens -3

Broncos @ Chiefs

Denver continues to fluctuate between the impress and the dire. Wins over the Chargers and Cowboys sandwiched a loss to the Eagles, leaving the mile-high franchise at 6-5 ahead of their trip to Arrowhead in Week 13.

Kansas City is back looking like themselves. It’s four straight wins for Patrick Mahomes and co, moving to the top of the division. They were always going to be dangerous if the defense got its act together – that’s exactly what has happened.

It’s hard to see the Broncos defense, even though it ranks above average, keeping Denver in this game. Kansas City’s offense has regained its mojo.

The Chiefs have won their last two games by 10 or more. They’re a good bet to make that three in a row and cover.

Pick: Chiefs -9.5

Patriots @ Bills

Despite an emphatic Thanksgiving win over the Saints, the Buffalo Bills are still chasing the Patriots in the AFC North.

Mac Jones continues to stuff the stat sheet, leading the Pats to five straight wins. This is a real test for the rookie on the road, though. Buffalo leads the league in total yards allowed per game, and held New Orleans to just six points last time out.

With two elite defenses matching up, this will be decided by timely execution. Converting third downs will be huge for Josh Allen and Jones.

It’s tempting to take Buffalo on the -3 handicap, but the under with the total set at 44.5 is probably the better pick. This will be a real battle.

Pick: Under 44.5 total points

Read More: Super Bowl Betting Strategy

How to read NFL odds

NFL betting odds can be daunting. There are plusses and minuses all over the place, different numbers and jargon that doesn’t make immediate sense.

The first thing bettors are likely to see is the spread. This is effectively a way of levelling the betting market out between the two teams. For example, if there’s a point spread of five, the favorites will be listed as -5 and the underdogs will be +5.

It’s pretty straight forward from there. The favorites need to win by at least five points for the bet to cash in, while the dogs ‘win’ if they are within five points at the end of the game.

The other main markets – moneyline, total points – are more obvious. Betting the moneyline is a straight up bet on who wins the game, and the points market is a bet on the combined points of the two teams.

Moneyline NFL odds will vary depending on the teams involved. It’s not uncommon to see teams heavily favored on the moneyline. For example, a -200 moneyline price means a $10 bet would return a $5 profit.

NFL odds movement

NFL game odds usually open several days before kick-off. The odds will alter during that period as information about the two teams comes out and money is wagered.

If a team starts as five-point favorites, and they get a lot of money behind them at that price, the point spread can increase to -6 or -7. Team news can, of course, produce major swings in the odds.

Possible odds changes are something for bettors to be wary of. It’s rare that the opening price will stay the same throughout the build up to a game – bettors should keep an eye on odds movement to find the best value

Super Bowl betting

The NFL season is all about one thing: The Super Bowl. It’s one of the biggest events in the sporting calendar, a game watched around the world. Legends are made in the Super Bowl, and it naturally attracts a massive amount of betting attention.

NFL fans will place Super Bowl futures bets months before the big game. The majority of Super Bowl outright betting will be on the winner, but there are alternatives like backing a team to come out of their conference. As the game nears, many bettors will delve into the Super Bowl MVP market looking for betting value.

Super Bowl odds will move throughout the season. Finding the best Super Bowl betting value does not necessarily mean backing a team at the start of the year. If they’ve got a tough start, maybe wait for them to lose a couple and back them when their odds lengthen.

NFL betting strategy

The strategy of betting on the NFL is similar to many other sports. Before placing a wager, keeping an eye out for injury news is obviously a priority, particularly quarterbacks. If Patrick Mahomes is playing through pain, his availability is a factor to consider as you weigh up your bets for the following week’s game.

With the season taking place through the depths of winter, a glance at the weather forecast is useful, too. A high-scoring game is much less likely with rain pouring down or in freezing temperatures.

Previous matchups between two teams and specific stats are important. How teams defend the run and pass can show weaknesses that their opponent can exploit. Sometimes it will suggest they can nullify their opposition’s greatest threat.

Recent performances of each team should be considered, but a couple of losses to two of the best teams in the NFL is not necessarily an indicator of future performance. Bettors must look a wide range of information before placing their wagers.

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