Super Bowl Player Props
Player props are a popular topic when it comes to Super Bowl betting. As we look ahead to the Big Game, speculation of how players get on is as rife as team success.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are meeting in 2021’s Super Bowl. It’s a matchup of the consensus GOAT in Tom Brady and the best quarterback in the game right now, Patrick Mahomes.
It’s easy to get lost in ambitious parlays ahead of the Super Bowl. Bookies will look to lure gamblers in with boosted odds. If we focus on the straight up player props, though, there’s plenty of value to be found.
Super Bowl Betting
Here are a few of our favorite player prop bets.
Travis Kelce 7.5 receptions – Over
Travis Kelce is the best tight end in the NFL. He’s developing a strong case as the greatest player at his position of all-time. Kelce is Mahomes’ go-to guy, just as Rob Gronkowski was for Brady throughout his years in New England (Gronkowski’s role has diminished on the Bucs).
Kelce set a record for receptions in the win over Buffalo. He was targeted eight times for eight catches when these two teams met in the regular season. The line of 7.5 receptions sounds reasonable for a player who averaged seven per game in the regular year, but Kelce’s numbers of late suggest this is a really good bet.
In 10 of the Chiefs’ last 11 games, Kelce has registered eight or more receptions. He has been targeted 10 or more times in all but one of those games.
Tampa Bay is one of the better teams at defending the pass. Their pass rush got to Aaron Rodgers on multiple occasions last time out. Finding Kelce on a regular basis is going to be vital for Mahomes to have a big game – he should cruise to the over on 7.5 receptions.
Leonard Fournette 11.5 rushes – Over
The running game is going to be huge for the Buccaneers. Keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field and wearing down the Chiefs’ defense is an important factor even in Bruce Arians’ usually pass-heavy offense.
Ronald Jones was Brady’s lead back earlier in the campaign. Fournette has owned that role over the last few games – the former Jaguar has registered 48 rushes over his last three games.
Tampa Bay ranked near the bottom of the league in yards per rush and total rushes in the regular season, but Fournette has become a more important piece of late. He will see a lot of the ball in the season finale, particularly if the Bucs take the lead.
There’s reason to believe Fournette will enjoy some success, too. Kansas City has been inconsistent defending the run – they have given up 114 or more rushing yards in four of their last five games.
Take the over on Fournette’s total rushes. It might be worth doing the same on his rushing yards total, too.
Tyreek Hill 89.5 receiving yards – Over
This is an easy bet. The Buccaneers had no answer for Tyreek Hill in their regular season matchup. Kansas City’s explosive receiver tallied 269 yards and a hat-trick of touchdowns, including a 75-yard score in the first quarter.
Hill averaged just 85.1 receiving yards per game in the regular season, but he has lit up the playoffs so far. Going for 110 against Cleveland and 172 in the win over Buffalo, the NFL’s ultimate deep threat has once again proven to be a menace for defenses.
Such is the variety of the Chiefs’ offense, though, it isn’t all highlight reel touchdown catches. Hill will be used on cross-field routes frequently, particularly early in drives. He’s got the acceleration to add plenty of yards after the catch – his 426 YAC in the regular season was good for a spot in the top 20.
Tampa Bay will give Hill plenty of attention. With Kansas City possessing such an array of weapons on offense, though, they cannot afford to overcommit. Hill has the ability to get past the 89.5 mark in a couple of plays.